This summer, we are seeing continued high natural gas demand, with an increase of three percent from last year. Despite this increase, natural gas producers are still concerned about natural gas prices and plan to cut production during the latter half of this year.

Domestic Demand

Total U.S. natural gas consumption increased by 5.6 percent (4.2 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d)) compared to the previous week of July 29th. The rise was primarily driven by a nine percent (4.1 Bcf/d) boost in natural gas used for power generation, as temperatures across the country were higher than usual. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 3.9 percent (0.3 Bcf/d), whereas industrial sector consumption fell by 1 percent (0.2 Bcf/d).

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) "Long Lead Seasonal Forecast" for winter 2024-25 reports that a "La Niña watch" is in effect, with La Niña expected to form between July and September. La Niña usually shifts the jet stream northward because of colder Pacific waters, causing heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada while making winters warmer in the South and cooler in the North. This weather pattern can cause more severe conditions than El Niño, potentially disrupting natural gas production and increasing demand.

International Demand  

European natural gas prices have surged this week as Europe gears up for the heating season and faces the possibility of strikes by Australian labor unions. The Offshore Alliance, representing two Australian unions, is moving towards striking at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone liquefied natural gas (LNG) sites. If these strikes go ahead, they could disrupt up to 10 percent of global LNG production, according to Tom Marzec-Manser from Independent Commodity Intelligent Services (ICIS). Australia is ranked seventh in the world in natural gas production, with a total output of 162 Bcf. This disruption can further heighten the already strong demand for U.S. LNG cargoes.

Production & Supply  

Major U.S. natural gas producers are planning further production cuts during the last few months of 2024 due to a nearly 40 percent price drop over the past two months. According to CFO Jeremy Knop, EQT, a natural gas producer, its output will be reduced by about 90 billion cubic feet this fall if the market stays weak. Chesapeake Energy, soon to be the largest U.S. gas producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy, also plans to delay some well completions until the market improves.

Despite these cutbacks, total working gas levels are still 14.9 percent above the five-year average of 2,846 Bcf. As of August 2, 2024, storage levels have increased by 6.4 percent from the previous week and are 8.2 percent higher than at the same time last year.

‍If you have any questions about the information in this newsletter or would like to talk to someone about your natural gas, please call your sales representative.

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